With the delivery of the Articles of Impeachment to the Senate the possibility of removing President Trump from office has moved from the theoretical to the statistical possibility. It has already been reported that if there was a secret ballot in the Senate, with the evidence we already know, President Trump would be the first President removed from office. Although this outcome is not likely, dare to say so was the election of Trump.
Articles of Impeachment
The allegations:
- First article of impeachment: Abuse of power: abused the powers of the presidency, in that: Using the powers of his high office, President Trump solicited the interference of a foreign government, Ukraine, in the 2020 United States presidential election. He did so through a scheme or course of conduct that included soliciting the government of Ukraine to publicly announce investigations that would benefit his re-election, harm the election prospects of a political opponent, and influence the 2020 United States presidential election to his advantage;
- Second article of impeachment: Trump directed current and former administration officials not to cooperate with House committees, and as a result, nine officials defied subpoenas.
A side note on the importance of the second article. It raises the important question of whether the President and the executive branch is a co-equal branch of government. If the President can simply ignore lawful subpoenas for information or documents from an equal branch of government that President is no longer a President, he is a dictator.
In a normal political environment it is clear, President Trump has done enough to warrant removal from office and most polls agree. A slight majority of Americans agree that President Trump should be removed from office. But this is not a normal political environment. This is an environment of Fox News and alternative facts, and explaining away the most despicable of Presidential behaviors. Every Republican Senator knows that if President Obama had committed the same conduct he’d be removed from office.
Speaker Nancy Pelosi was wise to delay the handing over of the impeachment articles. Since the delay, John Bolton has expressed a willingness to testify as a witness, and an associate of Giuliani and Trump, Lev Parnas provided further evidence of the criminal scheme of President Trump. The Government Accountability Office has also stated that Trump’s scheme violated the Impounding Act. Mitch McConnell wants to rush the trial because we don’t know what other ball could drop, we don’t know who else could come forward with damaging information.
A Conviction In The Senate
If President Trump is somehow, someway, shockingly convicted in the Senate, Vice-President Pence would then be sworn in as the 46th President of the United States. But that would not be the end of the drama. Chaos would likely ensue. Trump loyalist would probably accuse Pence of working behind the scenes with never-Trumper Senators to convict Trump. Trump, not afraid to throw anyone under the bus, would certainly throw Mike Pence under the bus. Pence’s role in the Ukraine scandal has not been fully flushed out.
The 2020 Presidential election would be turned on its head. The ultra-conservative Pence is divisive in his own albeit in different ways then Trump. But the inside Beltway stories would be interesting: Who would Pence pick as a VP? Would he keep Trump appointees? How would the 2020 narrative change in a Sanders vs. Pence, Biden vs. Pence, or Warren vs. Pence general election. This outcome is not likely but nonetheless interesting to ponder.
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