Predicting what will happen in an upcoming NFL season is usually an exercise in frustration, because there are so many unexpected things that occur in the league. Parity is usually more of a factor in the NFL than in other sports leagues, as well. In the AFC, you can count on three things in 2019: teams will rise, others will fall, and they will all have to contend with the New England Patriots.
Let’s break down each division before we pick the AFC representative for Super Bowl LIV in Miami.
AFC East
- New England
- New York Jets
- Buffalo
- Miami
While New England’s run of winning the AFC East in 15 out of the last 16 seasons is impressive, it helps that their division foes haven’t exactly been strong in that time span. Tom Brady and Bill Belichick return once again as defending Super Bowl champions, and despite not having really replaced the retired Ron Gronkowski at tight end, there’s no reason to think that the Patriots won’t win 12 or 13 games again and make a deep playoff run. Of the remaining teams in the division, the Jets have potential for improvement, with Sam Darnold ready for his sophomore season and star running back Le’Veon Bell in the fold.
AFC North
- Pittsburgh
- Cleveland
- Baltimore
- Cincinnati
In a division that’s usually known for blue-collar traits – running the ball, hard-hitting defenses, and physical play – high-powered offense may win the AFC North in 2019. The Steelers weathered the blow of Bell holding out with the emergence of James Conner, and now, Juju Smith-Schuster will be tasked with replacing departed wide receiver Antonio Brown. The Ravens have high hopes in Lamar Jackson’s first full season as a starter, but he was shut down in the playoffs last year, so can he adjust to defenses figuring him out? The Browns are hoping Baker Mayfield and Odell Beckham Jr. can lead the franchise to new heights, but both of those players are combustible elements, so we will see how they handle adversity. The Steelers have steady leadership under Mike Tomlin and Ben Roethlisberger and should edge out the other two teams in a tightly contested race.
AFC South
- Houston
- Indianapolis
- Jacksonville
- Tennessee
The Texans have finally figured out the quarterback position with DeShaun Watson, but the latter part of 2018 showed that Andrew Luck is back and means business with the Colts. Indianapolis won nine of their final 10 games to sneak into the playoffs, then dismantled the Texans in Houston on Wild Card weekend. The Colts have a slight edge, but just like a year ago, both teams should make the playoffs. Jacksonville has moved on from the Blake Bortles era, but it remains to be seen if Nick Foles can be a top-tier starting quarterback like Watson and Luck. While the Jaguars and Titans – with Marcus Mariota under pressure to perform in the final year of his rookie deal – should be decent, the Colts and Texans are in a higher class. But if Luck doesn’t play the Colts season is done before it starts.
AFC West
- Kansas City Chiefs
- Los Angeles Chargers
- Denver Broncos
- Oakland Raiders
Kansas City dodged the biggest bullet of the offseason when wide receiver Tyreek Hill was not suspended on a potential domestic violence situation. Patrick Mahomes returns to show that his record-shattering 2018 season was no fluke, and offensive master Andy Reid likely has a few tricks up his sleeve to keep the offense humming. If the defense improves, the Chiefs should run away with the division. I see a slight improvement in Denver under head coach Vic Fangio and with Joe Flacco at quarterback with something to prove. Everything bounced the Chargers’ way last year, and it’s tough to see Phillip Rivers repeating his 2018 performance in his 16th season. But they are still the second best team in this division. The Raiders, meanwhile, are treading water until their move to Las Vegas in 2020.
Playoff Predictions
WILD CARD ROUND: Houston over Browns, Piittsburgh over Chargers
DIVISIONAL ROUND: New England over Houston, Kansas City over Pittsburgh
AFC CHAMPIONSHIP: Kansas City over New England
